Looking around and watching the world go by can be interesting. No, I’m not saying you should sit and do nothing in life but watch it pass by. You should occasionally though look at the story’s arc. I’ve had some time as of late to do that and if I were to sum things up in a single word it would be “Blur”. Technology is advancing so fast new becomes old by the time we’re having fun with it. Politics in American is a constantly shifting thing completely without focus or permanence. Party positions change so dramatically from election to election, new parties emerge (Green, Tea, Coffee) while older ones redefine themselves. One day a maverick the next not, for fiscal responsibility then oppose tax increases, positions regarding health care, immigration, bailouts all changing so fast you risk whiplash trying to keep up. Lines once marked, not in the sand but in our laws on issue such as abortion, marriage, illegal drugs, guns all blurring.

It’s Friday and I fearing my next post to be more a rant I thought I should balance the day with a joke.  This one came to me today (talk about timely) from my awesome Father-in-law who had been over on a short visit.  He’s a bit old school.  By that I mean even though he gets jokes and such through email like the rest of us he still prints everything out for sharing.  Anyway, I hope you too find this one funny.

I am in total amazement.  Why?  Well because this is the first time I’ve ever had the opportunity to open my “I Told Ya So” playbook*. A few days ago this post from The Nifty Tech Blog came across my reader and I had to chime in. And Holy Guacamole!!  I nailed it.  Sorta.   Honestly though, even without the use of Phychohistory, it wasn’t hard to predict.  We’re dealing with two large companies (Apple, AT&T) that have shown zero skill at capacity planning time and time again.

Doc Coleman was more than correct in his followup post.  People will have nearly a year to get an iPhone 4 in their hands.  That, however was not the goal for many.  The goal was to have it in one’s hand on June 24th without having to camp outside a store and wait on lines rivaling those of Nov 4, 2008.  People also recall that when the 3G model reached stores they were sold out by the 2nd week of July and the backlog was so great estimates of four weeks before resupply were made.

I reference the 3G model because that was two years ago and AT&T requires that same span as part of their contract agreement.  My guess was that the first three months saw a million or so units sold.  AT&T is allowing upgrades ahead of schedule just for the iPhone 4.  Put those two factors together, sprinkle in a sizable number of smartphone users and potential buyers who are also at the end of their current contract and have been waiting for the iPhone to mature and you have the perfect iStorm.  If nothing else these three factors add up to a number greater than the 600,000 units available pre-order.

As for me, I did not even try ordering.  I made a deal with my wife that she’d get the iPhone 4 and I’d get an iPad.  I did remind her that pre-ordering had started but by that time it was all over the news that the program had been pulled.

For the record, my iPad is magical.  So much so I resist the urge to whisper abracadabra when I flip open my Apple iPad case.  If you listen closely you may catch me in a moment of weakness.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I think it’s high time I signed up as an iWhatever developer, slap together some bad code, sell it for $1.99 and watch the Washingtons roll into my bank account.  Dollar bills ya’ll.

*No such playbook exists.

If you’ve been following along here and on Twitter (and who isn’t, right?) you’ll know that I’ve dipped my toes into the world of writing.  Through what can only be described as osmosis I’ve also disturbed the placid surface of podcasting waters.  While nothing I’ve done or am working on is as complex or amazing as the numerous talented people I know and have come to meet thanks to Twitter I do have multiple ideas in my head and a few that I’ve started putting down on “paper”.  As things seem to happen at just the right time there was a recent discussion and great exchange of ideas regarding podcasting that covered a wide array of issue from creation to distribution to increasing listeners.  Just search #podcrit on twitter to see it all.  It’s also a great way to find great people with vast amounts of experience in this space.