I am in total amazement. Why? Well because this is the first time I’ve ever had the opportunity to open my “I Told Ya So” playbook*. A few days ago this post from The Nifty Tech Blog
came across my reader and I had to chime in. And Holy Guacamole!! I nailed it. Sorta. Honestly though, even without the use of Phychohistory, it wasn’t hard to predict. We’re dealing with two large companies (Apple, AT&T) that have shown zero skill at capacity planning time and time again.
Doc Coleman was more than correct in his followup post. People will have nearly a year to get an iPhone 4 in their hands. That, however was not the goal for many. The goal was to have it in one’s hand on June 24th without having to camp outside a store and wait on lines rivaling those of Nov 4, 2008. People also recall that when the 3G model reached stores they were sold out by the 2nd week of July and the backlog was so great estimates of four weeks before resupply were made.
I reference the 3G model because that was two years ago and AT&T requires that same span as part of their contract agreement. My guess was that the first three months saw a million or so units sold. AT&T is allowing upgrades ahead of schedule just for the iPhone 4. Put those two factors together, sprinkle in a sizable number of smartphone users and potential buyers who are also at the end of their current contract and have been waiting for the iPhone to mature and you have the perfect iStorm. If nothing else these three factors add up to a number greater than the 600,000 units available pre-order.
As for me, I did not even try ordering. I made a deal with my wife that she’d get the iPhone 4 and I’d get an iPad. I did remind her that pre-ordering had started but by that time it was all over the news that the program had been pulled.
For the record, my iPad is magical. So much so I resist the urge to whisper abracadabra when I flip open my Apple iPad case. If you listen closely you may catch me in a moment of weakness.
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I think it’s high time I signed up as an iWhatever developer, slap together some bad code, sell it for $1.99 and watch the Washingtons roll into my bank account. Dollar bills ya’ll.
*No such playbook exists.