I am in total amazement.  Why?  Well because this is the first time I’ve ever had the opportunity to open my “I Told Ya So” playbook*. A few days ago this post from The Nifty Tech Blog came across my reader and I had to chime in. And Holy Guacamole!!  I nailed it.  Sorta.   Honestly though, even without the use of Phychohistory, it wasn’t hard to predict.  We’re dealing with two large companies (Apple, AT&T) that have shown zero skill at capacity planning time and time again.

Doc Coleman was more than correct in his followup post.  People will have nearly a year to get an iPhone 4 in their hands.  That, however was not the goal for many.  The goal was to have it in one’s hand on June 24th without having to camp outside a store and wait on lines rivaling those of Nov 4, 2008.  People also recall that when the 3G model reached stores they were sold out by the 2nd week of July and the backlog was so great estimates of four weeks before resupply were made.

I reference the 3G model because that was two years ago and AT&T requires that same span as part of their contract agreement.  My guess was that the first three months saw a million or so units sold.  AT&T is allowing upgrades ahead of schedule just for the iPhone 4.  Put those two factors together, sprinkle in a sizable number of smartphone users and potential buyers who are also at the end of their current contract and have been waiting for the iPhone to mature and you have the perfect iStorm.  If nothing else these three factors add up to a number greater than the 600,000 units available pre-order.

As for me, I did not even try ordering.  I made a deal with my wife that she’d get the iPhone 4 and I’d get an iPad.  I did remind her that pre-ordering had started but by that time it was all over the news that the program had been pulled.

For the record, my iPad is magical.  So much so I resist the urge to whisper abracadabra when I flip open my Apple iPad case.  If you listen closely you may catch me in a moment of weakness.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I think it’s high time I signed up as an iWhatever developer, slap together some bad code, sell it for $1.99 and watch the Washingtons roll into my bank account.  Dollar bills ya’ll.

*No such playbook exists.

If you’ve been following along here and on Twitter (and who isn’t, right?) you’ll know that I’ve dipped my toes into the world of writing.  Through what can only be described as osmosis I’ve also disturbed the placid surface of podcasting waters.  While nothing I’ve done or am working on is as complex or amazing as the numerous talented people I know and have come to meet thanks to Twitter I do have multiple ideas in my head and a few that I’ve started putting down on “paper”.  As things seem to happen at just the right time there was a recent discussion and great exchange of ideas regarding podcasting that covered a wide array of issue from creation to distribution to increasing listeners.  Just search #podcrit on twitter to see it all.  It’s also a great way to find great people with vast amounts of experience in this space.

Well, it’s only the second day of the month but it’s still the middle of the work week.  So enjoy this Wednesday post from the archives of my personal email joke folder (don’t we all have one?).  This one came to me on June 23, 2006.  Again, its from my dad and since it arrived right around my third anniversary, I guess he was trying to prepare me for what’s likely to become my future.  My three kids, God bless them all, are quickly sucking most of my brain power even now so read on and enjoy.  I’ve already had days like what you’ll read below.  Am I the only one?

On Wednesdays you can count on two things — The weekend is just around the corner and there’ll be a little something shared from the funny emails I’ve collected over the years.

We’ve all seen org charts. Depending on the time of year you may see several revisions of the same chart as people are hired, fired, or retired. Through all these changes one sentiment seems constant. Once again, you can thank my dad for this gem.

I think this may just about cover it all.

Where do you tend to find yourself on this chart?